A Valuation of Polymarket (POLY)
Prediction markets are crypto's latest breakout sector.
In February 2026, the sector processed $23.2 billion in monthly volume, up 1,218% year-over-year.
Polymarket has led that expansion, generating $31.0 billion in volume and a 31% category share from September 2025 to February 2026.
In October 2025, Intercontinental Exchange agreed to invest up to $2 billion at a $9 billion valuation, validating institutional conviction in the platform.
Polymarket operates as a peer-to-peer prediction market across sports, politics, crypto, and other categories, letting users trade directly against each other on a central limit order book.
On March 30, Polymarket extends taker fees to nearly all markets, its most significant step toward monetizing the volume it has built.
Whether that monetization translates to durable revenue is the central question for POLY investors.
This report builds a ground-up valuation of Polymarket across market category volume, take rates, and fee multiples to test whether the $20 billion FDV Polymarket was reportedly seeking as of March 7, 2026, is justified by forward fee generation.
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