Interview with SBF’s parents drops chance of pardon on betting markets
If betting markets are to be believed, the chances of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried getting a presidential pardon this year aren’t looking good.
The chances of former FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried getting a pardon didn’t seem great this year, and a recent downtick on prediction markets shows that they aren’t getting any better.
Both major prediction markets in the United States, Polymarket and Kalshi , have the likelihood of Bankman-Fried receiving a presidential pardon this year at 11% and 9%, respectively.
Chances of a pardon have decreased 1% on Kalshi and 2% on Polymarket after a CNN interview on March 21 with Bankman-Fried’s parents, Joseph Bankman and Barbara Fried.
In the interview, both explained why they’re challenging their son’s fraud conviction.
The change may be small, but the interview and the public appeals for a reconsideration of the case have drawn renewed attention to Bankman-Fried’s parents’ role.
In a new interview with CNN’s Michael Smerconish, Fried and Bankman said that the judgement against their son was wrong.
“There’s an appeal on the case, but we don’t think it’s fraud,” Bankman said.
Bankman and Fried both agreed that Alameda Research had borrowed customer funds from their son’s exchange FTX.
But Bankman said that the funds “were not used improperly.” On the exchange, “you were able to put in money, and you were able to borrow money.
Alameda acted like everybody else, putting in money and borrowing money.” Bankman and Fried’s claim challenges the public narrative on the case, one in which they themselves were involved.
Bankman worked as a paid advisor to FTX, chiefly concerned with the exchange’s efforts regarding “effective altruism,” while Fried served as a political consultant, per the CNN interview.
FTX attempted to sue them as the exchange was restructuring in 2023.
In a complaint in the Delaware Bankruptcy Court, FTX sought to recover millions of dollars that it claimed Bankman and Fried “fraudulently transferred and misappropriated.” “Bankman played a key role in perpetuating this culture of misrepresentations and gross mismanagement and helped cover up allegations that would have exposed the fraud committed by the FTX Insiders,” the complaint alleged.
Chiefly, FTX claimed that “Bankman and Fried discussed with Bankman-Fried the transfer to them of a $10 million cash gift and a $16.4 million luxury property in The Bahamas.” The exchange sought the return of both of these funds and of the luxury property.
